Tactics and Substance in the 2004 Elections GoogleNews: Howard Dean

January 19, 2004

by V

Rubber, meet road

I won't be able to post again until after tonight's caucuses are over, but here's what I'm thinking:

The tightening of the polls has been a bit worrisome. I look forward to the attempts to reconcile whatever the actual results are with all the jockeying of the last week. I think it'll be hard to do unless the winner is Kerry (which I find mighty implausible).

As Dean said in rallies yesterday, this is where we find out if his approach results in actual votes.

I think it will; other campaigns and webloggers brag that it won't. Soon enough we'll have data, not just psychic predictions from both sides, and I look forward to it.
Posted by V at January 19, 2004 08:39 AM

A fellow by the name of Bogstone left an interesting comment over at my site: He said "Dean's got an ace up his sleeve - first time voters not factored into current polling - rumored to be 65% of his total support which would place him well over 30% on caucus night." I don't know if Zogby doesn't include first-timers or not, but if that is the case, that could mean a boost for Dean and Edwards.

Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2004 01:01 PM

Yes, there's been some buzz about that. However, it's been a long time since Iowa's had a hotly contested caucus, so I suspect that there are lots of first-time caucusers in general and I'm not sure how Dean's percentage compares.

(Of course, I -hope- that hard numbers and first-timers are Trippi's ace in the hole, but I'm still fidgety.)

Another number I saw was that Dean has 3,000 people on the ground from out-of-state volunteering in addition to 4,000 Iowan volunteers.

Posted by: J at January 19, 2004 01:05 PM

first time voters not factored into current polling

A Ceder Rapids Gazette reporter that was in two caucuses in the North Liberty area (that's north-east Iowa, near Ceder Rapids) was on MSNBC reporting that the Dean organizers in those precincts were not prepared for a large number of first-time, un-registered voters -- that a lot of people basically came out of the woodwork, and the Deanies were caught by surprise by this.

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 10:14 PM

That's so funny!

Posted by: tickling at September 1, 2004 03:45 PM

Recommended Reading:

The Politics of Truth: Inside the Lies that Led to War and Betrayed My Wife's CIA Identity: A Diplomat's Memoir
The Politics of Truth... A Diplomat's Memoir

Worse Than Watergate: The Secret Presidency of George W. Bush
Worse Than Watergate: The Secret Presidency of George W. Bush

Against All Enemies by Richard Clarke
Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror

LIES by Al Franken
Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right

The Great Unraveling
The Great Unraveling

The Great Big Book of Tomorrow
The Great Big Book of Tomorrow

Clinton Wars
The Clinton Wars

Blinded by the Right
Blinded by the Right: The Conscience of an Ex-Conservative

Waging Modern War: Bosnia, Kosovo, and the Future of Combat

Subject to Debate: Sense and Dissents on Women, Politics, and Culture

Living History

The Hunting of the President: The Ten-Year Campaign to Destroy Bill and Hillary Clinton

John Adams

Founding Brothers: The Revolutionary Generation

Code and Other Laws of Cyberspace

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